Overconfidence and the seniority effect

As experience grows, competence generally grows too. But so does other people’s willingness to trust your judgement. That is pleasant — and risky.

As a senior developer, I can end a discussion simply by sounding certain, without actually being right. Less experienced colleagues may not object because they assume I’ve noticed something they’ve missed. Sometimes I have. Sometimes I’m merely more convincing.

This becomes particularly visible with technologies I’ve worked with for a long time. Familiarity can feel like complete mastery. At the same time, I may dismiss newer approaches too quickly as hype — or overrate a new technology because I want to prove that I’m still keeping up.

Experience should not give me a greater right to be correct. It should give me greater responsibility for how I handle uncertainty. A sentence such as

That’s my current assumption, but I’m not sure yet

is not a loss of authority. It is often a sign of professional judgement.